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Industries · Quantum Computing & Post-Quantum Security

Harvest Now. Decrypt Later.

On June 22, 2026, the federal government signed twin executive orders accelerating the migration to post-quantum cryptography, with hard deadlines running through 2033. AxiSentinel evaluates whether an organization's AI systems, evidence chains, and infrastructure meet the cryptographic standard each deadline actually requires.

$1.9B → $19.4B
Global Quantum Computing Market, 2026 to 2035
Jun 22, 2026
Executive Orders 14412 & 14413 Signed, Setting the Federal PQC Clock
Dec 31, 2030
Deadline: High-Value Federal Systems Must Support PQC Key Establishment
Jan 1, 2027
CNSA 2.0 Deadline: New National-Security-System Acquisitions Must Be Quantum-Safe
3
NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards Finalized (FIPS 203, 204, 205)
WHAT'S CHANGING

Encryption Everyone Trusts Today Has an Expiration Date

For 30 years, RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography protected everything from TLS sessions to signed audit records. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer breaks both. The government's answer arrived not as a single law but as a stack of deadlines, standards, and acquisition rules, most of them binding now, some on a clock that starts the day a system is built, not the day it's attacked.

Aug 2024
NIST Finalizes FIPS 203, 204 & 205
Key-encapsulation (ML-KEM), digital-signature (ML-DSA), and hash-based backup signature (SLH-DSA) standards published, giving vendors an actual target to build against.
2025
CNSA 2.0 Software & Firmware Signing Milestone
National Security Systems are directed to prefer quantum-safe software and firmware signing starting this year, the first live CNSA 2.0 deadline.
Jun 22, 2026
EO 14412 & EO 14413 Signed
"Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks" and "Ushering in the Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation" set migration leads, implementation-plan deadlines, and new FAR requirements for contractors.
Sep 21, 2026
FIPS 140-2 Certificates Sunset
All remaining FIPS 140-2 module certificates move to Historical status; only FIPS 140-3-validated modules are acceptable for new federal procurement.
Jan 1, 2027
CNSA 2.0 Acquisition Deadline
New National Security System acquisitions and networking equipment must be quantum-safe from this date forward.
Dec 31, 2030
Federal PQC Key-Establishment Deadline
All federal high-value assets and high-impact systems must support post-quantum key establishment; contractors face new FAR compliance requirements.
The deadline that matters isn't when a quantum computer can break your encryption. It's when your data was harvested, which, for anything sensitive, may already have happened.

The evidence gap

A cryptographic inventory is a point-in-time spreadsheet. AxiSentinel is built for the years between now and 2030, while migration is actually happening system by system.

Who this page is for

  • AI vendors and cloud platforms serving federal or defense customers
  • Organizations holding federal contractor or subcontractor status
  • Critical-infrastructure operators facing FAR-linked PQC requirements
  • CISOs building a cryptographic migration roadmap against a real deadline
Global Coverage

Every Deadline That Defines "Quantum-Safe"

From NIST's finalized standards to the executive orders enforcing them, AxiSentinel tracks the full stack of quantum-security obligations bearing down on AI infrastructure.

FEDERAL / NIST
FIPS 203, 204 & 205, Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards
LIVE

The finalized key-encapsulation and digital-signature standards every federal PQC deadline is measured against.

  • ML-KEM (FIPS 203): key-establishment standard, the most widely implemented so far.
  • ML-DSA (FIPS 204): primary digital-signature standard; commercial adoption confirmed lagging behind ML-KEM.
AxiSentinel coverage: LIVE in the RegDef library today.
FEDERAL / EXECUTIVE ORDER
EO 14412, Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks
BINDING PHASED DEADLINES

Signed June 22, 2026. Directs federal agencies and their contractors onto a hard PQC migration schedule running through 2031.

  • Agency deadlines: migration leads designated within 30 days, implementation plans within 90.
  • Contractor reach: new FAR requirements extend the obligation to government contractors, subcontractors, and cloud providers.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked, RegDef package build scheduled.
NATIONAL SECURITY
CNSA 2.0, Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite
BINDING

The NSA's phased quantum-safe timeline for National Security Systems, with the first acquisition deadline already in force.

  • Jan 2027: new NSS acquisitions and networking equipment must be quantum-safe.
  • 2033: operating systems and web/cloud services must exclusively use quantum-safe algorithms.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked, RegDef package build scheduled.
FEDERAL / PROCUREMENT
FIPS 140-3 Validation Requirement
IN FORCE SEP 2026

All remaining FIPS 140-2 certificates move to Historical status September 21, 2026; only FIPS 140-3-validated cryptographic modules are acceptable for new federal procurement.

  • Procurement gate: a non-compliant module blocks new federal sales outright, not just flags a finding.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked ahead of the September 2026 sunset.
US CONGRESS
Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act (P.L. 117-260)
BINDING ENACTED 2022

Requires federal agencies to inventory IT systems vulnerable to quantum decryption and prioritize migration once NIST standards are published, the standards are now published.

  • Annual obligation: cryptographic inventory and migration-progress reporting to Congress continues for 5 years after NIST issued its PQC standards, through 2029.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked, RegDef package build scheduled.
EU / EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for Post-Quantum Cryptography
RECOMMENDATION

Commission Recommendation (EU) 2024/1101 (11 April 2024), operationalized by the NIS Cooperation Group's roadmap. Non-binding on member states but sets the EU-wide reference timeline.

  • By Dec 2026: member states to have national PQC transition roadmaps and pilots underway.
  • By Dec 2030: PQC transition complete for high-risk use cases; by Dec 2035, for medium- and low-risk use cases.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked as a watch item.
UNITED KINGDOM
NCSC Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Timeline
GUIDANCE

Published 20 March 2025 by the National Cyber Security Centre. Not mandatory, but the reference timeline UK organizations are measured against.

  • By 2028: identify cryptographic services needing upgrades and build a migration plan.
  • 2028 to 2031: execute high-priority upgrades; 2031 to 2035: complete migration for all systems, services and products.
AxiSentinel coverage: tracked as a watch item.
CROSS-CUTTING
NIST AI RMF & ISO/IEC 42001
LIVE

General-purpose AI risk-management frameworks that already apply to any AI system whose cryptographic posture is part of its own risk profile.

  • Applies today: an AI vendor's key-management and signing practices are squarely inside these frameworks' scope.
AxiSentinel coverage: live in the RegDef library today.
Coverage

Use cases we evaluate

From a single cryptographic module to an entire federal system portfolio, AxiSentinel evaluates the software and evidence continuously, not just at audit time.

Cryptographic algorithm inventory evidence
Continuous evidence of which key-establishment and signature algorithms are actually in use, not a one-time spreadsheet.
FIPS 140-3 module validation tracking
Evidence that cryptographic modules in production are validated, not merely claimed compliant.
CNSA 2.0 migration-phase compliance
Evidence mapped to each CNSA 2.0 deadline, by system category.
Federal contractor FAR clause readiness review
Preparation evidence ahead of new FAR post-quantum requirements reaching contractor agreements.
"Harvest now, decrypt later" exposure assessment
Evidence of which data classes remain vulnerable to future decryption given current algorithm choices.
TLS 1.3-and-successor deployment evidence
Tracking evidence for the federal TLS support deadline.
Hybrid classical/post-quantum deployment tracking
Evidence for organizations running hybrid algorithms during the transition window.
Signed audit-record cryptographic-agility evidence
Evidence that an evidence chain's own signing algorithm can be swapped without breaking its integrity guarantees.
Vendor cryptographic bill-of-materials verification
Evidence of what cryptography actually ships inside third-party AI components.
Quantum-safe key-management lifecycle evidence
Evidence for key generation, rotation, and retirement practices under the new standards.
National Security System acquisition-readiness review
Evidence prepared ahead of CNSA 2.0's acquisition deadlines.
Cross-agency PQC implementation-plan tracking
Evidence a federal agency's own 90-day implementation plan is actually being executed.
Cloud-service-provider PQC compliance evidence
Evidence for cloud and SaaS vendors selling into federal or defense customers.
Legacy/custom-equipment exception documentation
Evidence supporting the narrower exception timelines legacy systems are held to.
Post-quantum algorithm performance-regression evidence
Evidence that a PQC migration didn't silently degrade system performance or reliability.
Digital-signature migration lag tracking
Evidence addressing the confirmed gap between key-encapsulation and digital-signature adoption.
Quantum-readiness board and investor reporting
Board-level evidence packages summarizing migration status against public deadlines.
Software/firmware signing-key migration evidence
Evidence for the earliest CNSA 2.0 milestone, already in force.
AI model-weight encryption-at-rest evidence
Evidence that model artifacts themselves are protected under a quantum-safe standard.
Multi-jurisdiction cryptographic-standard reconciliation
Evidence reconciling US NIST/CNSA requirements against any other jurisdiction's own cryptographic rules.
For Investors

A Federal Deadline Just Became Everyone's Deadline

PQC migration reaches every AI vendor with a federal or defense customer, whether or not they've noticed. AxiSentinel's evidence-chain architecture already generates continuous proof for regulated AI; cryptographic-posture evidence is a new RegDef surface on the same platform, not a new product.

$1.9B → $19.4B
GLOBAL QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET, 2026 to 2035
29.7% CAGR (Precedence Research).
3
NIST FINALIZED POST-QUANTUM STANDARDS
FIPS 203, 204, and 205, published August 2024.
Jun 22, 2026
TWIN EXECUTIVE ORDERS SIGNED
EO 14412 and EO 14413, setting the federal PQC migration clock.
$4.8B → $22.6B
AI TESTING & CERTIFICATION SERVICES MARKET, 2025 to 2032
24.6% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets).
$254.4B → $306.1B
GLOBAL TIC INDUSTRY, THE PARENT MARKET
3.8% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets).
37
PATENT CLAIMS ACROSS THREE PATENT-PENDING ARCHITECTURES
RegDef engine, cryptographic evidence chain, certificate registry.

The commercial logic, stated plainly

The honest risk picture

Market figures are drawn from third-party research houses whose scope definitions differ materially; ranges are presented rather than point estimates. Regulatory descriptions are summaries for orientation, not legal advice. Nothing on this page is an offer to sell securities.